Seasonal break brings revised beef production forecasts
October 27, 2017 12:00 pm
Australia’s cattle market and national herd rebuild will hinge on a seasonal break, after a dry winter.
Rain across southern Queensland and northern NSW in early to mid-October has revived the cattle market, with reduced yardings and stronger restocker buyer activity lifting prices.
The rainfall outlook for eastern Australian for the remainder of October looks positive. The good rainfall has lifted the EYCI gaining a further 12% to close at 566.750c/kg cwt, sitting at a 12 week high.
Recent rain has seen restocker young cattle move, with a tighter supply and stronger demand. NSW Restockers paid 11.5% more for the most expensive cattle in the country (according to reported indicators) at 349¢/kg cwt.
Despite the challenging season, the 2017 forecast for the national average adult cattle carcase weight has been revised higher from the projected July update to 297.4kg, a 3% or 9.2kg increase from the record reached in 2016. Beef exports were also revised slightly from 1.02 million tonnes (shipped weight) to 1.03 million tonnes for 2017.
The Bureau’s forecast of a fairly normal November rainfall pattern and a good chance of a wetter than average December is a good indicator for prices in the weeks ahead.